Roggio Solidifies His Chances For Nomination

Since last week, much has changed in the race to become the Democratic nominee in 6PA. Thursday night, the Montgomery County Democratic Committee voted convincingly to endorse the nomination of Bob Roggio. Saturday, Bob Rovner publicly announced his intention to withdraw from the race.

That leaves a two-man contest between Roggio and Mike Leibowitz.

Ideal Candidate will not go away. The site will continue to serve as a rallying point for ensuring that our eventual candidate is armed with the best ideas and program for defeating Gerlach in the fall.

Bob Roggio's Issues Statement: Good Start But Needs Some Upgrades

Bob Roggio's campaign website is now live. It looks nifty. I urge everyone to check it out.

It even has a tab containing an issues statement. Mr. Roggio should be commended for taking this step. Ideal Candidate wishes the other candidates had given activists a peak at this type of info as well, so it could be debated and discussed among those who are being asked for donations and early endorsements.

The trouble is that it is a bit thin (and safe). Particularly weak is the tab on the economy. The statement in its entirety is as follows:

We need to restore the principles of fiscal responsibility that the Bush Administration has ignored. By concentrating on fiscal discipline and reducing deficit spending, our country can focus on long-term economic prosperity. Our country needs to invest in infrastructure, early childhood education, programs for college bound students, and economic development. We need a new commitment to job creation. Above all else, we need responsible and accountable leaders who will curtail the spending spree in
Washington.

Basically a salad of feel good words that reveal nothing about how Roggio would vote on economic issues (other than, presumably, how the Democratic leadership would instruct that he vote). At its root, the statement betrays a careless adoption of the weakest form of 1990's Clinton nostalgia. Whatever Clinton's other achievements, his successful run on the economy had very little to do with his historic decision to listen to the "bond market" and balance the budget first. The fairy tail goes on to recount how the bond market reacted by lowering interest rates and ushering in a new era of prosperity.

As nobel prize winner and former Clinton economic advisor, Joseph Stiglitz, points out in his book, The Roaring Nineties, Clinton got lucky. As he passed his historic tax increase, banking regulators adopted new rules that made it cheaper for banks to lend. The expansion of credit then led to growing optimism which led to the tech boom and a rise (for the first time since the 1970's) in real incomes for average working families. Stiglitz proves, I think, that the tax increase and the decrease in deficits did not cause the boom. On the contrary, the boom caused the budget to come into balance.

So what? The 111th Congress will be under pressure to cut certain taxes (the Alternative Minimum Tax) and to keep certain tax benefits (the Earned Income Tax Credit) for working families. Even if you assume that the "Bush Tax Cuts" will be trimmed back and certain loopholes closed (like the "carried interest" loophole that benefits Pete Peterson and his ilk) the budget will face rising deficits in 2009. Also, the credit markets are so consumed with cleaning up after the burst of the "leverage bubble" that they are unlikely to be the source of a boom in lending for quite some time. Thus 2009 will not be 2003.

So, will Roggio side with the "Blue Dogs" and insist on a narrow version of "fiscal discipline?" Or will he follow his instincts towards making needed public investments in "infrastructure," education and "economic development" and back reform of the budgeting process or the revival of mechanisms like the Reconstruction Finance Corporation that extend government credit directly to investments that will pay back the federal government over time?

Based on Roggio's campaign statement, your guess is as good as mine.

Demand more from our candidates. Demand that they venture beyond pat answers based on false nostalgia for the "golden nineties" and propose policies that can reverse 30 years of the "conservative"-led disinvestment in our economy and people.

Kuttner to Democrats: Be Bold on the Economy

Bob Kuttner is an economist and a founding editor of American Prospect magazine. His has been a consistent voice of sanity on the causes of our current economic mess. His latest article challenges Democrats to provide a real contrast with Republicans on the economy. Over time, Kuttner probably puts more emphasis on opposition to trade agreements than Ideal Candidate would favor. He is viewed primarily as a protectionist on trade. However, he recently has widened his diagnosis to include unwise deregulation-- especially of financial and energy markets--that Ideal Candidate believes to be spot on.

Kuttner's key point for our race is his advice to make not the last 8 years of Bush 43 the issue; but to make the last 30 years of so-called "Conservative" revolution the issue. The backers of the "Conservative revolution" of the post-1973 era are not real conservatives, but actually devious supporters of policies that amounted to the unprecedented overthrow of exactly those policies that built the US as a technology-based manufacturing nation. Nostalgia is not the point. But figuring out how the next 30 years can be better for the average American family than the last 30, is precisely the point.

Flash Poll Results: Rovner 52%; Roggio 29%

Ideal Candidate's admittedly unscientific poll has closed and the results are in. Rovner wins with a less than overwhelming 52%, despite the greater visibility of this site among Lower Merion -based activists. Rovner is a committeeman in Lower Merion and is well known in those parts. Interestingly, Leibowitz garnered no votes among the 17 cast.

Truth be told, this poll means very little as the information available on the candidates' biographies and platforms is still extremely thin. Perhaps the best approach for Party insiders is to withhold endorsements until the candidates have had a chance to engage with voters.

Two cheers for an open primary?

The Rights and Wrongs of "Fiscal Conservatism": What Our Congressional Candidates Need to Tell Us

To date, Ideal Candidate has had personal chats with two of the three candidates for 6PA. Mr. Rovner and Mr. Leibowitz both sought to define themselves as "fiscal conservatives", one (Leibowitz) expressly stating that he supports a balanced budget amendment. Bob Roggio's campaign website contains a short paragraph on the "Economy" that talks of little else than the need for (again) "fiscal responsibility." Clearly, the candidates perceive that there are many votes to be won in our district if you can position yourself successfully as a "fiscal conservative." Ideal Candidate does not disagree.

Nevertheless, Ideal Candidate believes that the actual candidates need to be clear. What do they mean by "fiscal conservative?" In what way are federal deficits wrong? Are they always wrong? Or only wrong in times of economic prosperity and OK when private markets are in turmoil? When thinking about the national debt, should we add to it for some things (investments) and not others (permanent wars)?

One of the three candidates, Mr. Leibowitz, clarified his meaning, after he read where Ideal Candidate was headed with questions. He said he favored capital budgeting and cited the Schuylkill Valley Metro (more on this later) as the kind of infrastructure project that "would pay for itself." That's encouraging. Ideal Candidate urges the other two candidates to make clear where they stand. Once they do, we will be able to judge better which is the Ideal Candidate to take on Gerlach on the economy, whose own confusion on the subject of federal deficits and taxes stems from a very different political disease (he never met a tax cut or privatization scheme he didn't like).

Dean Baker, one of Ideal Candidate's favorite economists, takes the (usually) saintly Bill Moyers to task in his blog Beat the Press for presenting distorted information about the federal budget deficit. Particularly important is Baker isolating for criticism Blackstone Group founder Pete Peterson's role over many years in building a "bipartisan movement" to "reform Social Security."

One of the generals in this army is Peter Peterson, an incredibly rich investment banker who has garnered tens of millions of dollars of tax breaks that allowed him to pay a lower tax rate on his earnings than school teachers and firefighters pay on their earnings. Peterson was most recently in the public eye for lobbying Congress to protect the "fund manager tax subsidy." However when he is not lobbying Congress to protect the tax break that has allowed him and other very wealthy people to evade billions of dollars of taxes, Mr. Peterson is lobbying Congress to cut Social Security. He has repeatedly told audiences that "I don't need my Social Security" (after getting hundreds of millions in tax breaks, who would?), which he then uses as a justification for cutting Social Security benefits for tens of millions of workers who have paid for them. Mr. Peterson started the Concord Coalition, which has cutting Social Security as a top agenda item. He is also starting a new foundation devoted to this purpose. His track record earned him a solo appearance on Bill Moyers Journal a few years back, in which he got the opportunity to go his tirade against Social Security and other government programs without any correction from experts who understood the issues. Moyers again opened his show tonight to deficit fear mongers, again without any rebuttals from experts with knowledge of the issues.

The Concord Coalition program is the wrong type of "fiscal conservatism." As a condition for winning our support for their nominations, our candidates for 6PA should be heard loudly to say the Concord Coalition is wrong.

Ideal candidate's ideal platform (Talking Points, below) states clearly that the federal budget process needs to be reformed so that we can distinguish better between annual appropriations that should be balanced against tax revenues on an annual basis (government worker salaries, paper clips etc.) and those investments which should be paid for over the longer useful life of the asset they financed (rail systems, schools, hospitals etc.). In short, the federal government needs some sort of capital budgeting. Every state and local governmental level has a system for accounting for capital outlays separately. Since the 1950's the federal government has not. That's a political choice, not a consitutional limitation. Its time this gap is closed.

Vote in Latest Ideal Candidate Poll

According to recent reports, Richard Phillips is no longer interested in running against Gerlach. That leaves three candidates who have announced interest and presumably are filing petitions today that meet the legal requirements for ballot access in the Pennsylvania primaries on April 22nd. They are Chester County real estate developer Michael Leibowitz, former state senator and lawyer Bob Rovner of Lower Merion and Robert Roggio, a retired businessman from Charlestown Chester County.

We will be hearing more about these candidates in the weeks ahead. Earlier Ideal Candidate posts have linked to what news reports exist about the race and the likely candidates. The Chester County Democratic Committee has endorsed Roggio. Next week the Montgomery County Democratic Committee meets and will decide whether and whom to endorse. Now that the choices appear to be in place, it is time for a quick poll. Take a moment to vote by selecting your choice in the box appearing to the left of this post. Polls close in a week.

Latest Poll Results: Iraq Still Key Issue to Respondents

The results of the latest Ideal Candidate Poll are in. Four out of five respondents to the poll cite the Iraq War as the most important issue that should be addressed by an Ideal Candidate. Ideal Candidate wants to know more. What position should Ideal Candidate take on withdrawl? Should it be total and immediate withdrawl of all troops? Or should our candidate campaign on a variant of Obama and Clinton's formula, withdrawl of most troops by a deadline with a residual presence to "maintain security?" Ideal candidate encourages you to post a comment.

Ideal candidate also believes that although local activists who are more likely to visit sites like this are less motivated on the economy, in an actual campaign drawing distinctions between the Bush-Gerlach record on the economy and an alternative philosphy (if not a policy wonk statement) from a challenger will play a big role in determining whether independents voting for Democratic candidates higher on the ballot will continue to use the 6th District race as an excuse to split their ticket and remain "true" to their "independent" self image.

Gerlach's Softball Challenge: Dems Should Hit It Out of the Park

Here's the latest from Gerlach. I guess he's trying to channel the Governator's "girly man" challenge:

I have this question for my potential opponents,” [Gerlach] said. “What will you do differently than Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats’ do-nothing Congress?”

This should be so easy for any candidate, not just the ideal candidate, to hit out of the park.

First of all, I would remind voters that the "do-nothing" Congress has done as much as is possible with the obstructionist Administration at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. But I would also say that I would move the budget agenda from "pay-go" rules (Pelosi's ill-conceived 2006 campaign pledge) to a full scale reform of federal budgeting. I would explain to the voters the importance of greater federal investment in infrastructure (roads, bridges, hospitals, water systems etc.) and the importance of accounting for it properly-- using capital budgeting. Then I would turn to Gerlach. Do you support the reforms necessary to make a dent in our multi-trillion-dollar deficit in infrastructure? If so, show me any evidence of your past or current leadership on the issue.

Congress Passes Stimulus: Great but Not Enough

In a major step, Congress yesterday passed a compromise stimulus package sending it to a President who is likely to sign it. For a moment, let's put aside our usual cynicism. This is a real achievement in this political environment. It's a defeat for the usual post-Reagan approach to economic problems (cut marginal tax rates) and a victory for Democratic ideas (put spending power in the hands of as many people as possible). What this campaign for the 6th District seat should be all about is creating a better political environment, one where we can expect even better things from our national government.

But is this "stimulus package" enough? Bob Kuttner of the American Prospect rightly argues that a "stimulus" is not enough. The reason? The US is experiencing economic headwinds that are much stronger than the usual business cycle. According to Kuttner:

In fact, the entire concept and language of "stimulus" misses the point—and misses a huge opportunity. A stimulus is a macro-economic concept. It is sensible medicine when the economy is in an ordinary business-cycle downturn. Government deficit spending or tax cuts can pump more money into the economy, as can lower interest rates mandated by the Fed.

But this is no ordinary cyclical recession. Rather, it is a sharp and needless economic contraction, caused by a serious blow to the financial system, which was in turn the result of deregulation. Banks' balance sheets have taken a huge hit from the spillover
of the sub-prime disaster, and credit remains scarce and expensive even after several rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Worse, this downturn comes on top of three decades of stagnant or declining real living standards for about two thirds of Americans, and increasing insecurity of employment, health insurance, and retirement, as well as rising costs of housing, education, and energy.

In short, there are very good reasons for believing that much of the problem is structural; that 30 years of conservative "reforms" of the economy have made the US economy much weaker over time.

Ideal Candidate's proposals for infrastructure spending and capital budgeting and for reform of Wall Street are ideas for moving the debate beyond stimulus to structural reform.

This is the area where an Ideal Candidate can create contrast with Gerlach. Gerlach's economic ideas (such as they are) represent a popular distillation of the same post-1973 consensus (deregulation and tax cuts are panacea) as got us into this mess. The Ideal Candidate represents change.

Let the debate begin.

Finally, the Fog Clears and Candidates Emerge

Suddenly a flood of news..

Robert Roggio, a retired Chester County businessman, has reportedly received the endorsement of the Chester County Democratic Party.

As reported in the Inky, Bob Rovner was collecting signatures in Narberth this weekend. The Bulletin quotes Bob as saying that he is doing the Congress thing as a favor to Daylin Leach. As reported in that same article, Bob had originally expressed interest in running for Connie Williams' State Senate seat, but agreed to step aside in favor of Daylin.

Mike Leibowitz says he is not stepping aside and is the best man for the job. Richard Phillips was not at the Chester County endorsement shindig, but it is not clear that he has abondoned his run.

Ideal Candidate is pleased. This blog will be a good place to vet issues and personalities leading up to the February 21st endorsement convention for the Montgomery County Democratic Committee (see calendar of events on LMNDC Website). May the "Ideal" Candidate win!

Confusion Reigns

Locally, the picture is not any clearer regarding a challenger for our beloved 6th District U.S. House of Representatives. We have at least two potential candidates talking with local party leadership: Michael Leibowitz and Richard Phillips. And reportedly, some folks have not given up on Chris Casey, an attorney Bob Casey's brother. And Bob Rovner? Despite some communications from local supporters, Ideal Candidate's sources don't find any sign that Bob is actually running. All this is extremely confusing. Where is the debate among partisans? What do the Party activists, the ones who will do the work, think? Are they merely waiting for the white smoke to appear outside of the walls of Chairman Groen's Norristown vatican?


Nationally, politics is creeping into the debate over a stimulus package. The Senate Democrats added elements to the Pelosi/Bush compromise that are very much within the "targeted, temporary and timely" framework charted by Rubin & Co. Enhanced food stamp and unemployment benefits will be spent as soon as they are received by people who very much need them. If we had an ideal candidate, he or she would be challenging Gerlach to tell us where he stood on using temporary enhancements to these programs as ways of getting money in the hands of people quickly. But we don't... yet.